Prime Big Deal Days drew $9.86 billion online. Now the holiday shipping surcharges and fee changes arrive for sellers

Amazon's October Prime Big Deal Days drove $9.86 billion in U.S. online spending across all retailers on October 6 and 7, 2026, up 8.5% from last year's event, according to Adobe data reported by Digital Commerce 360 and Chain Store Age. The result landed just under Adobe's preseason forecast of $9.9 billion and 9.2% growth, and it arrives as online sellers face a run of cost and policy changes this month: carrier peak surcharges, a Shopify tax change on return shipping fees, an Amazon fee category reshuffle and a hotter-than-expected inflation report on October 14.

Taken together, the numbers describe a holiday season in which shoppers are still spending, but cautiously, and in which the cost of fulfilling each order is rising faster than many sellers' prices. For independent stores and marketplace sellers, the weeks between now and Thanksgiving are the window to adjust.

What did shoppers buy during Prime Big Deal Days?

Adobe's figures cover online spending at U.S. retailers broadly, not only Amazon. Compared with average daily sales in September, toys rose 158%, video games 90%, electronics 85% and personal care 73%. Within electronics, headphones and speakers jumped 300% and smartwatches 255%. Halloween costumes rose 610% as shoppers used the event for near-term needs.

Household data from Numerator, reported by Chain Store Age, points to value-seeking behavior. Average household spend rose 9% to $114.01, average order size grew 7% to $48.74, and two-thirds of items purchased cost under $20. Top sellers included protein shakes, disinfecting wipes, toilet paper and dish spray. Some 56% of shoppers compared prices at other retailers, and 20% said they bought holiday gifts during the event.

Mobile devices accounted for 52% of online sales, about $5.1 billion, and buy now, pay later financed 6% of orders, or $692.3 million, up 4%, according to Adobe. Social media drove 7% of revenue, up 40% from a year earlier, and affiliates and partners, a category that includes influencers, held a 21.9% share.

What do the forecasts say about the full holiday season?

Adobe's holiday forecast, released September 28, projects $275.1 billion in U.S. online spending from November 1 through December 31, up 6.7%. It expects Cyber Week to bring in $47.5 billion, with Cyber Monday the single largest day at $15.1 billion, followed by Black Friday at $12.9 billion and Thanksgiving at $6.9 billion.

Other forecasters land in a similar range. Deloitte projects holiday e-commerce sales of $316.1 billion to $318.9 billion from November through January, growth of 7.5% to 8.4%. The Mastercard Economics Institute expects online sales to grow about 11% from November 1 to December 24, but estimates that about half of overall holiday spending growth will come from higher prices rather than more goods sold.

That price effect is the backdrop to the September consumer price index, released October 14. Headline inflation rose to 3.7% year over year and core inflation to 2.6%, both slightly above expectations, according to Charles Schwab's market update, which also noted that market odds of a Federal Reserve rate increase this month jumped to 46%. Rising prices can lift dollar sales figures while squeezing shoppers' budgets, which helps explain why Numerator saw so many sub-$20 baskets.

How much more will shipping cost this holiday season?

All three major U.S. parcel carriers have peak pricing in place or about to start. Based on carrier schedules summarized by EasyPost and Value Added Resource:

• UPS: a $0.50 per-package demand surcharge on Ground Residential and Ground Saver starting October 25, rising to $0.75 from November 22 to December 26. Last year the comparable charges were $0.40 and $0.60.
• FedEx: $0.50 on Ground residential and Home Delivery starting October 26, rising to $0.80 from November 23 to December 27, up from $0.40 and $0.65.
• USPS: a temporary price change that began October 4 and runs to January 17, 2027, built into the rates by weight and zone rather than charged as a separate fee. For commercial Ground Advantage, the increase ranges from $0.40 on light packages to nearby zones up to $7.70 on 26 to 70 pound parcels sent to distant zones, according to Fulfill.com's summary of the approved schedule.

High-volume shippers face steeper, volume-banded charges, and oversize or extra-handling packages carry much larger fees. Value Added Resource also pointed out that on marketplaces where shipping is part of the fee base, higher shipping charges can raise percentage-based selling fees.

USPS recommends that holiday packages in the contiguous United States ship by December 17 for Ground Advantage and First-Class Mail, December 18 for Priority Mail and December 19 for Priority Mail Express to arrive by December 25, according to the Postal Service's announcement.

Which platform changes hit online sellers this month?

Two platform changes take effect before November. Starting October 23, Shopify will calculate sales tax on return shipping fees for U.S. orders at stores using Shopify Tax or Tax Platform, according to Shopify's developer changelog. Merchants who charge customers for return labels should check how that tax appears in their return flows and accounting.

On Amazon, some products are moving to different fee categories effective October 31, according to seller analytics firm Novadata, which advised sellers to check the Fee Preview report in Seller Central and use Amazon's dispute process for any listing placed in the wrong category. Because referral fees vary by category, a listing can look unchanged to shoppers while its fees rise.

What should online sellers do before Black Friday?

1. Reprice for the true cost of delivery. Add the peak surcharge for each carrier and service to the cost of a typical order, then check whether free-shipping thresholds still cover it.
2. Audit fees and taxes. Review Amazon's Fee Preview before October 31 and confirm the Shopify return-fee tax change is reflected in return policies and bookkeeping. A tax professional can confirm obligations in specific states.
3. Stock the low-ticket items. Numerator's data shows strong demand for practical goods under $20; bundles and add-ons in that range can lift order values.
4. Prepare for AI shoppers. Adobe expects traffic to retail sites from AI tools to rise 130% this season. Clear product titles, complete specifications and accurate stock data help AI assistants surface a store's listings.
5. Publish shipping cutoffs early. Post order-by dates based on the USPS, UPS and FedEx deadlines, leaving a buffer for handling time.

What to watch next

Carrier residential surcharges begin October 25 and 26, and the Federal Reserve meets October 27 and 28 after the hotter September inflation reading. Retailers' own early holiday promotions in late October and November will show whether shoppers keep the value-focused pattern seen during Prime Big Deal Days. The next major data point will be Adobe's tracking of Thanksgiving weekend, which will test whether its $47.5 billion Cyber Week forecast holds.