Holiday airfares are at 10-year highs, and a federal rule starting Oct. 19 narrows what counts as the airline's fault. When to book, and what you are still owed

Anyone who has not yet booked a flight home for the holidays is facing the highest fares in a decade. The average domestic round trip for Thanksgiving is about $402, up 31% from last year, and Christmas trips average $452, up 23%, according to Hopper's 2026 Holiday Travel Index as reported by FOX 9. Both are 10-year highs.

The reasons are familiar to anyone watching fuel prices this year. Hopper attributes the increase to prolonged high jet fuel costs, largely tied to the conflict in the Middle East, along with airlines cutting less profitable flights and raising fares and bag fees. Low-cost capacity has also shrunk: Spirit Airlines left the industry in May, CNN Newsource noted. Airfares overall have risen about 23% since the war in Iran began, The Points Guy reported, citing Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

Airlines say demand is holding up anyway. "We're not seeing any slowdown at all — our consumer is resilient," Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian told CNBC, as quoted by The Points Guy. "The fares will be a function of what the market bears."

When should you book holiday flights?

Hopper's advice is to book flights and hotels before Halloween. Kayak's historical data points the same way. Domestic Thanksgiving fares have typically bottomed out about five weeks before the holiday and then climbed sharply in the final two weeks, according to Kayak's 2026 Holiday Travel Check-In as reported by TravelPulse. Last year, fares rose as much as 16% the week before Thanksgiving and 21% during Thanksgiving week. The Points Guy, which tracks prices with the Points Path tool, said fares have stayed high but fairly steady since August.

Which days are cheapest to fly?

Thanksgiving falls on Thursday, November 26 this year. The day you fly matters almost as much as when you book.

Sources: Kayak via TravelPulse; Points Path data via The Points Guy; Hopper via FOX 9. Fares are averages and change daily.

A few more findings from the trackers are worth knowing. Flying on Thanksgiving Day itself can save up to 19% on domestic fares and 49% on international fares compared with Friday, November 20, Kayak found. Traveling during Christmas week rather than the week before can save up to 18% domestically. On some routes, buying two one-way tickets instead of a round trip saved up to 29% domestically and 30% internationally. Hotels are mixed: Hopper puts Thanksgiving hotel rates at $170 a night, roughly flat, but Christmas rates at $197, up 18%.

The Points Guy also recommends choosing fares that allow changes or cancellation and using a fare tracker, since prices can fall after you buy.

What changes on October 19 for delays?

Holiday travelers are also flying into a period of more disruptions. The Points Guy reported that flight cancellations reached a four-year high in 2026. Against that backdrop, a Department of Transportation rule published September 3 takes effect on October 19 and changes how some disruptions are classified.

Airlines report the cause of every delay and cancellation to DOT each month, and one of the categories is "Air Carrier," meaning problems within the airline's control. The final rule implements Section 511(b) of the FAA Reauthorization Act of 2024, which says ten specific types of events "shall not be included within the Air Carrier code." Because the law left no discretion, DOT issued the rule without the usual public comment period. The ten events are:

1. Cleaning an aircraft after a passenger's death
2. Aircraft damage from extreme weather, foreign object debris or sabotage
3. Bag or cargo loading delays from an outage of a baggage system the airline does not control
4. Cyberattacks, if the airline complies with applicable cybersecurity rules
5. Unexpected shutdowns or failures of government systems that directly affect safe operations
6. Overheated brakes after a safety incident that required emergency procedures
7. Unscheduled maintenance, including airworthiness directive work, that cannot be deferred
8. Medical emergencies that are not the airline's fault
9. Removal of an unruly passenger
10. Airport closures caused by volcanic ash, wind or wind shear

Why it matters for meals and hotels

Meals and hotel rooms during delays are not DOT requirements. They come from each airline's customer service commitments, which typically apply to delays and cancellations the airline controls, and they are listed on DOT's airline cancellation and delay dashboard, Aviation A2Z explained. When fewer events count as controllable, fewer disruptions qualify for those commitments.

DOT says so directly. Its regulatory analysis states that "the total value of amenities and compensation currently provided by air carriers to consumers will be reduced," though the department says it cannot reliably estimate by how much, and it describes the effect as a transfer of value from consumers to airlines. The maintenance item may matter most in practice: a mechanical problem that cannot be safely deferred will no longer be coded as the airline's fault, while problems that can be deferred may still be treated differently.

What does not change

Refund rights are separate. Under DOT's refund rules, passengers whose flights are canceled, significantly delayed or significantly changed can still get a full refund, including taxes and fees, if they decline the alternative offered. A significant delay is three hours or more for domestic flights and six hours or more for international flights, according to a summary by The Points Party. The same summary notes that the law also calls for a separate category for air traffic control delays, which DOT plans to address in a future rulemaking with public comment.

A holiday travel checklist

1. Book soon, ideally before Halloween, and set a fare alert for the trip you buy in case the price drops.
2. Shift by a day. Monday or Tuesday departures and returns, or flying on the holiday itself, are consistently cheaper.
3. Know the cause. If your flight is delayed, ask the gate agent what caused it. It determines which of the airline's commitments apply.
4. Check your card benefits. Some credit cards reimburse meals and lodging during long delays when the trip is charged to the card. The terms vary by card.
5. Take the refund if you need it. If a flight is canceled or significantly delayed and you choose not to travel, you are entitled to your money back, not just a voucher.

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